General Elections 2024: Predictions Suggest a Narrow Win for Narendra Modi’s BJP
As India gears up for the seventh general elections in the world’s largest democracy, opinion polls and analysts are converging on a prediction: Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to emerge victorious, but with a reduced majority.
The upcoming elections, scheduled to take place in April-May 2024, will be a crucial test for the BJP, which has been in power since 2014. With Modi at the helm, the party has delivered several notable economic and social achievements, including a significant rise in the country’s economic growth, improved infrastructure development, and a strong military response to regional threats.
However, the BJP’s performance has also been marked by controversies, including accusations of corruption, communalism, and authoritarianism. Additionally, the party has faced significant challenges in its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to widespread criticism and dissatisfaction among the electorate.
Despite these challenges, most opinion polls suggest that the BJP will still manage to win a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. A recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, for instance, projected that the BJP would win around 220-240 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) would secure around 140-160 seats.
Similarly, the CNN-IBN-ETG election tracker has predicted that the BJP would win around 235 seats, while the INC would win around 135 seats. The polls also suggest that the Third Front, comprising regional parties like the Trinamool Congress, the Janata Dal (United), and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, will win around 50-60 seats.
While a narrow win for the BJP is predicted, the real contest is likely to be for the second spot, with the INC and regional parties vying for position. The INC, which has been out of power at the Centre since 2014, is seen as a strong contender to challenge the BJP’s dominance. The party has recently appointed a new president, Mallikarjun Kharge, who is expected to breathe fresh life into its organisation.
The regional parties, on the other hand, are likely to play a crucial role in shaping the electoral landscape. The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi and other states are all expected to perform well and potentially win significant number of seats.
Despite the BJP’s expected victory, the elections are expected to be closely contested and may result in a hung Parliament, where no single party has a majority to form the government. This could lead to a hung assembly, where regional parties and smaller parties may hold the key to forming a government.
In conclusion, while the BJP is likely to emerge victorious in the 2024 general elections, the party’s performance is expected to be limited by a reduced majority. The elections will be a crucial test for the BJP, as it seeks to maintain its dominance in Indian politics and navigate the complexities of coalition politics. As the polls approach, Indian citizens will be eagerly awaiting the outcome, which promises to shape the country’s future for years to come.